Markets Continuing Uptrend, Is This A Good Time To Enter The Stock Market For Beginners?

The S&P this morning is pointing to a down open, but that’s actually a good sign. The stock market can be a dangerous place for beginners, but if you know what you’re doing it offers opportunities that just aren’t possible anywhere else. And of course there are other things as well like Forex trading (Foreign Exchange, AKA Foreign Currency), futures trading, and cryptocurrency trading – one of my personal favorites. Whatever you choose to trade, please make sure you start trading on a simulator first (AKA Paper Trading) and especially if you are a beginner, keep your trade sizes small so you don’t risk blowing up your account.

Currently the S&P looks like it’s working on a continuation of the recent break of the all-time highs, but nothing is ever 100% certain until after the fact. There are at least two possible scenarios playing out here. If the S&P makes another higher low (higher than 2914.50) and then makes a higher high (higher than 3006) then we have a confirmed continuation of the uptrend. However there is also a Bearish case to be made, and that is if the S&P makes a lower high, and then breaks the previous higher low.

Either scenario could play out, but looking at the smaller timeframe, to me at this moment it looks more likely that we are continuing to the upside. Everything is fully in the Bullish camp right now – higher highs and higher lows, Oscillator and MACD above their zero lines, price above the major moving averages, and the shorter term moving average above the longer term. There are no signs at all of a divergence on the daily oscillator either, nor has price even come close to violating the daily uptrend line. So for now the only direction worth trading is with the trend – to the upside.

That’s not to say this market will go straight up. Nothing ever does. All markets move in patterns of highs and lows, and it’s recognizing those patterns that is the first pillar of how we trade. On top of that our Elliott Wave Theory counts strongly suggest a bullish continuation as well and if we get that, we could be looking at a run to upwards of 3300 or beyond. Certainly though if we get to the 3300 neighborhood, I’ll want to be protecting profits.

In other markets, for those who like crude oil trading, CL looks to be staging a comeback and is now making higher highs and higher lows. We appear to have finished with a 60minute wave 3 and are pulling back for a wave 4. If this wave 4 is done, then from here we should break the high of 60.28, but the Bearish scenario is that we have only completed the first 2 of the 3 waves in this correction, and wave C down is still to come which could bring us closer to the golden ratio retracement of around 55. If we take out the low of 56.04 then we can expect a bit more downside to come, before heading upwards again to finish wave 5.

Now for a gold market analysis. My eyes suggest that gold has just completed a wave 3 to the upside, and is either in a wave 4 correction, or has just finished one. We can’t be 100% certain yet, but looking at the smaller timeframes it does appear to be in the beginnings of a wave 3 up on the 60 minute. As long as we hold above roughly 1385 and establish a higher high, then I would say that confirms the wave 3 up. So that would mean we are in a daily wave 5, and our initial target should be no higher than about 1443. Could gold head higher? Absolutely. But near the 1443 level you’ll want to begin protecting profits.

Now for those of you with a natural gas trading strategy, NG looks to be heading higher after finally bottoming on June 20. NG has broken the previous lower high, and established a higher low, so it appears the trend has changed. My Elliott Wave counts suggest we may be in a wave 3 up and if that is correct, we should soon take out today’s high and hold above the 50 Simple Moving Average. My expectation however is that price will remain near this level long enough to allow the daily 13 Exponential Moving Average to catch up to the 50 SMA a bit, and when the 13 finally crosses above the 50, we will have confirmation. On the other hand if we take out the low of 2.217, then there may be further downside after all.

And lastly, for all my Bitcoin traders out there (or those just curious about Bitcoin trading). Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general has of course been on a historic bull run recently, but as mentioned previously markets never go in a straight line. I believe we have just completed a daily wave 3 up and have now completed the wave 4 correction, and are preparing for a final push higher for wave 5. Grab what you can for now while it lasts, then wait for the big Elliott Wave full-cycle correction to get long and attack those all-time highs!


The Stock Market Today Is On Fire, S&P 500 Technical Analysis, Volatility Index near lows!

For today’s S&P 500 technical analysis there’s really only one way to go, and that’s with the bulls. Buyers are relentless at these all time highs, and there is almost no fear at all in the market according to the VIX volatility index. The stock market today is definitely on a rocket ride upwards, but it won’t last forever. It looks to me like we’ve got one more push up to go, before a good correction. But for the moment we have a clear trend up with no signs off trouble at all at this time.

Now when it comes to the russell 2000 vs s&p 500, the R2k is the weaker of the two no question. It’s also still in a rising trend, but it’s not showing the kind of strength the S&P is displaying. Looking at the Russell 2000 futures, it’s clear to see where the points of support and resistance are. But with the daily still overall strong, we can only look to trade to the long side at this time.

Now for a look at the crude oil price. Light sweet crude is also uptrending after bottoming recently and now the 13 period moving average is climbing above the 50 period, and this market is primed for a push higher. Looks like we’re finishing up a wave 5 on the 60 minute timeframe so a minor correction should be coming soon. If crude oil trading is your thing, and you have a good crude oil trading strategy, be ready for an entry after that correction, in order to catch the next major move up.

And now for gold futures trading. Gold has not been able to move higher recently, but it’s not moving lower either. Anyone can clearly see that it’s in a choppy consolidation area, but our gold futures analysis suggests there is still room to the upside to finish an Elliott wave 5. Gold has had a huge runup recently, and all signs point to there being more room overhead. It looks like we may even be in a pennant pattern which would suggest a further price extension to the upside.

And now for my natural gas traders. If you’re looking for some natural gas trading tips, here’s a few things to watch for. Natural gas looks to have bottomed recently and is now making higher highs and higher lows along with an oscillator divergence. All signs point to a bullish scenario, and a good trendline trading strategy is to wait for a pullback to the trendline which shows it holding as support, and get long the natural gas market. The moving averages are up, the price action is up, the oscillator is up, everything is up and looking good to continue.

And now for a little Bitcoin technical analysis. If you’re into Bitcoin trading, you know how volatile this market can be. But that doesn’t mean it breaks the basic rules of technical analysis trading. Maybe you have your own BTC trading strategy, but here’s what I see. We’re at the top of an Elliott wave 3, and are either in the pullback of wave 4, or wave 4 has already finished and we are working on wave 5 to the upside now. We can’t know with 100% certainty until everything plays out, so for now we have too just trade what we see, and not what we think. And what I see, is a Bitcoin price prediction that has it moving higher from here for at least one final wave that could push BTC near the all time highs before correcting once again.

S&P 500 near all-time highs! Gold futures can’t head higher? Natural Gas set to explode? BTC going crazy??

Wow the S&P 500 is once again trying to break the all time highs! We had a momentary scare the other day with almost breaking the previous higher low, but price held up so for now, the trend is still up without question. The big unknown here is, at one point will the sellers come back into the market? When we’re up in an area where there haven’t been sales before, we don’t have any past history to use to gauge what might happen. But regardless of anything else, what I see is potentially a continuation of what I believe is a daily Elliott Wave 3. The trend is up, the indicators are all up and heading higher, so no matter how nervous the media gets, the technical analysis is all bullish. Even on the smaller timeframe, everything is still looking up with room to spare. Ultimately we have to trade what we see and not get tricked into listening to the random noise all around us from traders who may have a completely different S$P trading strategy.

If you’re trading the Russell 2000, the last few weeks have been pretty frustrating and choppy. No real good trend, no real direction, but it seems like this could change any minute. If we hold the higher low, then we are continuing to the upside and if we do break out, then I’m looking for a potential daily Elliott wave 3 continuation to the bull side.

Crude oil looks like it may have complete the pullback of a wave 4, but on closer inspection, I’m not quite so sure. Maybe this is actually . just a large ABC pattern that will get all the way to the 61.8% level. It’s just not real crisp & clear at the moment but there’s nothing we can do about that, we just have to adjust the analysis as we get more information. Though my analysis at the moment is pointing to upside, be prepared in case the market proves you wrong, and protect your account.

As for gold futures trading, gold had a nice pop up but was immediately slapped down by the bears. They weren’t able to push very hard though and right now we’re heading to the upside. Momentum is trending downwards though, so this is going to be an important time for gold to see if it’s able to push higher and break the recent high, or if that momentum oscillator drags the gold futures down to break the previous low and start the full 5-wave cycle correction. Overall though it looks good for some more upside at this time.

For natural gas trading, the wave count I’ve been drawing on the daily timeframe just seems too small, I think it’s more of an intraday wave count and maybe we’ve just finished a wave 2 down and heading into a wave 3 to the upside. But if this is a wave 2, it could come very close to the start of wave 1 so we need to beware of possible further downside.

For my Bitcoin traders out there, it seems that we’ve completed the ABC correction in BTC and could be heading higher from here. If it does manage to challenge the previous all-time high around the $20k level, will there be many sellers waiting? Or have they mostly been washed out in the nearly 90% correction? We may find out later this year if things keep going the way they have been, with the bulls pretty firmly in control. If prices don’t head higher, however, and we take out the wave C low, then everything has to be re-examined and rethought in order to fit the market’s behavior. That’s how it goes with technical analysis, it’s much more art than science.